As not too long ago as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the thought of a short lived cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month during which President Trump turned American overseas coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager no less than to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and the US on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, informed reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “rigorously learning” the end result of Tuesday’s talks between the US and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He stated he anticipated the US to tell Russia within the coming days of “the main points of the negotiations that came about and the understandings that have been reached.” He raised the opportunity of one other cellphone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Mr. Putin sought to indicate he was answerable for occasions by donning army fatigues and holding a televised assembly along with his prime army officers charged with pushing Ukraine out of Russia’s Kursk area, the place Russia has made progress in latest weeks. He directed his troops to defeat Ukraine within the area “within the shortest doable time,” a transfer that, if profitable, would deny Ukraine a key level of leverage in any negotiations with Russia.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes during the last month as Mr. Trump realigned American overseas coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from the US and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his needs for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he needs to finish the struggle as quickly as doable, Mr. Putin has signaled he won’t cease preventing till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine won’t be a part of NATO and that the alliance will scale back its presence in Central and Jap Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the objective of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some type of respite.” Russia, he stated, sought “a long-term peace primarily based on respect for the official pursuits of all folks, all nations who dwell on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a short lived cease-fire stemmed from the straightforward calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely quit its leverage by stopping the preventing with out successful concessions.
However a Feb. 12 cellphone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, might have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good aspect, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, stated the Kremlin might be tempted to simply accept a truce that will be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” with a purpose to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has saved up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russia’s overseas intelligence company stated on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia within the coming days, in line with two folks accustomed to the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inner plans. Mr. Trump on Tuesday stated that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week, and he informed reporters on the White Home on Wednesday that his negotiators have been en route.
“Individuals are going to Russia proper now as we converse,” Mr. Trump stated throughout a gathering with Eire’s prime minister. “And hopefully we are able to get a cease-fire from Russia.”
In an indication of Moscow’s persevering with appeal offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s overseas ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to 3 American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information persona Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and stated Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that the US was providing.
“It definitely will not be inconceivable that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, stated of the 30-day provide. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, momentary cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculus is also affected by Russia’s progress in latest days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had stated he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it might refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area largely again in Russian palms, Mr. Putin now not dangers dropping face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would depart Ukraine answerable for an space of Russian territory, stated Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An extra incentive to agree, Mr. Markov stated, was to be sure that Russia “doesn’t seem like a struggle maniac” within the eyes of non-Western international locations which have prevented imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he stated, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, resembling a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine at some point of the cease-fire.
“Russia will very seemingly say, ‘Sure, however —,’” Mr. Markov stated in a cellphone interview.
Russia’s fashionable pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce may finally result in a broader cope with the US that, of their view, would betray the unique objectives of the struggle and finally result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the title Alex Parker Returns, argued in a publish on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would permit Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the subsequent spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
