Iran and Russia have finalised a long-delayed cooperation settlement, reinforcing ties between the 2 international locations simply as they each face mounting geopolitical pressures.
The 20-year deal, signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday, enhances army and defence cooperation, and features a clause that neither nation would permit its territory for use for any motion that might threaten the security of the opposite, nor present any assist to any celebration attacking both nation.
Such a deal has been talked about for years, however present occasions have made the necessity for an settlement extra urgent.
For Russia, the battle in Ukraine has strained its geopolitical standing, whereas Iran, along with Moscow, has been grappling with Western sanctions and the fallout from Israel’s assaults on and weakening of a number of of its allies within the area, in addition to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in early December.
It’s arguably Syria that has supplied the important thing impetus to the strengthening of ties, with each powers dropping a key ally in al-Assad, weakening their energy within the wider Center East.
Each Moscow and Tehran have been ultimately keen to let go of al-Assad, having been caught off-guard by the opposition advance. However they now seem dedicated to strengthening their very own bilateral relationship.
The signing of the Complete Strategic Partnership Settlement throughout Pezeshkian’s official go to to Moscow displays that.
The settlement builds not solely on Russian-Iranian cooperation concerning Ukraine and efforts to evade Western sanctions, but additionally on the North-South Transport Hall – an initiative championed by Moscow to facilitate commerce from Asia to Russia.
This route, designed to bypass geopolitical choke factors just like the Suez Canal and the Baltics, favours a land hall via Iran, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea.
Syria as a catalyst
Previous to the start of the battle in Syria in 2011, each Moscow and Tehran had their very own respective strategic partnerships with Damascus.
Russia’s partnership was anchored to the naval base in Tartous, established in 1971 to venture energy throughout the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim airbase, in-built 2015 initially to offer air help to al-Assad towards the Syrian opposition. Over time, the airbase has performed a pivotal position in Moscow’s operations in Africa.
Iran, in the meantime, deepened its relations in the course of the Iran-Iraq battle within the Nineteen Eighties, pushed by an understanding that each Tehran and Damascus opposed Western interference within the area. Syria grew to become an essential conduit to the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, a part of Iran’s “Shia crescent” and “axis of resistance”.
Iranian and Russian strategic pursuits converged in Syria because the battle progressed, notably in 2015, when each stepped in forcefully to stop an opposition victory.
Russia’s army intervention in 2015 stabilised al-Assad’s regime, aided by Iranian-aligned militias that performed a decisive position in turning the tide of the battle.
“Relations between Russia and Iran have since expanded,” Kirill Semenov, a non-resident knowledgeable with the Russian Worldwide Affairs Council, advised Al Jazeera. “After 2020, occasions in Syria had solely a minor impression on Russian-Iranian relations, which have developed in lots of new instructions.”
These embody army cooperation, and an enlargement of financial ties, with Tehran and Moscow working to bypass Western sanctions via different banking mechanisms and power offers. Iran has additionally positioned itself as a important transit hub for Russia’s North-South Transport Hall, providing an important commerce path to Asia.
Ties have additionally deepened because the Russia-Ukraine battle, by which Russia is utilizing Iranian-supplied drones, pushed by shared pursuits in confronting the perceived world hegemony of the USA. Each international locations search alternate options to the US-led world order, with Iran viewing Russia as a companion in its pivot in the direction of the East.
Iran becoming a member of the BRICS group of rising economies in 2023, a membership Russia was already part of, may be considered as a part of this effort. BRICS presents a platform for collaboration, as Iran eyes membership and integration right into a multipolar financial bloc aligned with its objectives.
“Constructing a multipolar world and countering the expansionist plans of the USA and the collective West stay central to Russian-Iranian cooperation,” Semenov mentioned.
It’s this widespread enemy method that has seen Iran and Russia develop nearer, mentioned Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow on the German Institute for Worldwide Safety Affairs.
“The 2 sides have taken steps to raise their relationship towards some form of strategic partnership, notably in areas like army and safety cooperation, and extra not too long ago in financial cooperation, aimed toward evading sanctions and adapting to the unfavorable implications of financial pressures from the West,” mentioned Azizi.
Limits to a Russian-Iranian partnership
Whereas the cooperation pact signed on Friday indicators a deepening partnership, it doesn’t embody a mutual defence clause or represent the formation of a proper alliance, in contrast to the treaty Russia signed with North Korea final yr.
That maybe displays a restrict to the connection between Iran and Russia that has already been seen in Syria.
There, Tehran and Moscow couldn’t discover widespread floor and have been most of the time undermining one another or unable to rise to the problem of rebuilding the nation.
For instance, in 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made it clear his nation could be the one one to rebuild Syria’s power business. Iran, which was wanting to reap the advantages of reconstruction in Syria, was stored at bay by al-Assad and Moscow with one Iranian parliamentarian warning that Iran was being “sacrificed”.
The brand new Syrian administration may additionally turn into some extent of divergence between Russia and Iran, with Moscow sustaining a extra conciliatory method.
Azizi famous that the fallout from al-Assad’s fall for each Russia and Iran will rely on quite a few variables, together with “whether or not or not there was some behind-the-scenes settlement or understanding between Russia on one aspect and the US, Turkiye, and [the former] Syrian rebels on the opposite, as a part of a possible complete package deal that features Syria and Ukraine”.
“For instance, if Russia can preserve its army bases in Syria, albeit in a extra decreased capability, and if there may be an settlement to finish the battle in Ukraine after [US President-elect] Donald Trump takes workplace, Russia may very well really feel much less want for Iranian help on numerous fronts in each Syria and Ukraine,” Azizi added, though he added that he believed any basic adjustments in Iran-Russia relations have been unlikely given the “rising depth of cooperation” up to now few years.
Divergence is feasible in different areas too, notably on the subject of nuclear weapons, which Iran has been accused by the West of looking for. Iran’s defence doctrine formally opposes the pursuit of nuclear weapons, however some factions in Iran have now publicly known as for that to vary after Israel landed a number of blows to its allies, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Russia has traditionally been concerned in Iran’s nuclear programme, together with within the building of the Bushehr nuclear energy plant, however repeatedly stalled progress all through the 2000s and 2010s, leaving some in Iran to accuse Russia of being an unreliable companion. Moscow additionally delayed the supply of the S-300 missile defence system between 2010 and 2016, a results of the sanctions positioned on Tehran by Western nations.
“Russia doesn’t need Iran to be outfitted with nuclear weapons … [that] would change the steadiness of energy within the Center East towards Russia’s pursuits. One of the best state of affairs for Russia is for Iran to stay below sanctions and to problem the US and Europe over its nuclear programme,” mentioned Armin Montazeri, international coverage editor at Hammihan Each day in Tehran.
“If Russia have been to cooperate in containing Iran, it will seemingly search concessions from the US on the Ukraine difficulty,” Montazeri added.
New instructions within the Center East
Geopolitical dynamics can at all times change relying on occasions on the bottom, as Syria has confirmed, and with the shortage of any robust ideological bonds past an anti-US technique, relations between Iran and Russia might fray.
The altering nature of alliances may be seen in Turkiye’s opposition to Iran and Russia, and its cooperation with them.
In December 2024, because the Assad regime crumbled, the Turkish, Iranian, and Russian international ministers convened on the sidelines of the Doha Discussion board in Qatar.
The tripartite assembly was convened below the Astana course of, a diplomatic initiative aimed toward managing the Syrian battle, the place Russia and Iran had served as guarantors on the regime aspect and Turkiye on the opposition’s.
Astana served as a chance for the three powers to work collectively to realize safety objectives in Syria, at the same time as they supported completely different sides. However for a lot of the course of, it was Turkiye that was within the weaker place, contemplating what was seen as al-Assad’s de facto victory within the battle.
That has now modified, and it’s Turkiye’s longstanding help for the previous opposition that locations it ready of energy vis-a-vis Iran and Russia, and a conduit for affect on Damascus.
It’s a new actuality that they will should adapt to, mentioned Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish Research on the Omran Heart for Strategic Research in Istanbul.
“Iran, whereas clearly deprived, should regulate to the brand new actuality and set up some type of relationship with Syria’s new authorities,” mentioned Ozkizilcik, referring to the just about carte blanche the Assad regime gave Iran to function inside Syrian territory.
For its half, Russia, whereas hoping to maintain its bases in Syria, is hedging the brand new actuality by turning partially to Libya, the place it has a detailed relationship with the jap authorities based mostly in Benghazi and Russian cargo planes have made a number of flights to its al-Khadim base.
Iran, however, has seemingly retreated to Iraq in a bid to consolidate its place. Reviews have emerged that it has pushed its allies in Iraq to cease firing rockets and drones in the direction of Israel, which can have led to US-Israeli assaults on their positions.
On this context, Iran is prone to shore up its affect in Iraq, “the final pillars of Iran’s axis of resistance,” mentioned Montazeri.
Iraq’s significance now serves as a monetary useful resource and defensive buffer for Tehran, which depends on the nation for financial help amid sanctions.
Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Coverage assume tank in Tehran, mentioned Iran has a historical past of adapting to shifting geopolitical dynamics, and can be capable of face up to any adjustments and preserve its relationship with Russia.
But no matter offers emerge between Russia and the US following Trump’s inauguration, Iran’s management doesn’t count on Putin to radically alter his strategic path in the direction of Iran.
“Putin is effectively conscious of the anti-Russian stance embedded within the US and European institutions,” Emamian mentioned.
“Over the past three years, Russia has confronted what it perceives as an existential problem from the West … it appears unlikely that Putin would danger his longstanding alliances, particularly with those that have confirmed their loyalty in important moments, equivalent to in Syria and Crimea,” Emamian added.
